🎂 Birthday Paradox · Sports
← All sports

Football (Soccer)

Team

12,103 team lists · 361,411 player entries · avg team size 29.9

Read this sport as a comparison between raw coincidence and what team size alone predicts. Here, the real rate is +2.9 points above the birthday-paradox baseline.

Real team lists
71.5%
teams with shared birthdays
Why it matters: This is the headline rate, but it should never be read without team size.
Expected from size
68.5%
from avg team size
Why it matters: This is the fair baseline: what same-size random teams would do.
Gap from expected
+2.9 points
real − expected
Why it matters: Positive means the sport has more birthday matches than size alone predicts.
Team lists
12,103
teams analysed
Why it matters: Enough team lists for a useful sport-level read.
What to notice: The best question on a sport page is not "is the real rate high?" but "is it high after accounting for team size?" That is what the gap card is answering.

Country comparison

Countries with the most team lists for Football (Soccer), charted by the share of teams with at least one shared birthday.

What to compare: This view is best for spotting sample-shape differences inside a sport. Among the highest-sample countries, BRAZIL has the highest observed rate, with an average team size of 35.8.

Gender split inside this sport

Real and expected rates for labelled team lists in this sport.

Why it matters: The gender gap is mostly a team-size story. Men have the larger average team size here (29.9 athletes), so their birthday-match rate naturally rises.

By country

Top 40 countries by team-list count.

CountryTeam listsAvg playersReal
ENG1,89032.576.9%
SPAIN67231.374.9%
ITALY65933.679.5%
FRANCE63627.367.0%
MEXICO57727.065.5%
GER57730.176.4%
ARG53832.980.3%
NATIONAL45323.853.0%
USA37028.465.4%
BRAZIL34035.886.2%
JAPAN31031.674.5%
TURKEY29627.766.6%
SCOTS29232.474.3%
PORTUGAL27628.463.4%
SWEDEN27225.364.0%
NORWAY27026.363.0%
BELGIUM26428.367.4%
POLAND26228.566.0%
RUSSIA25630.473.0%
GREECE24929.766.7%
NETHERL23428.866.2%
UKRAINE23429.669.2%
CZECH22626.161.9%
CHINA22432.787.5%
HUNGARY22029.370.9%
DENMARK20026.069.5%
CHILE17829.774.2%
IRELAND17426.264.4%
AUSTRIA17228.367.4%
AUSTRALIA16727.163.5%
SWITZ16228.576.5%
URUGUAY11027.657.3%
COLOMBIA10028.673.0%
HOLLAND5433.475.9%
CROATIA2029.880.0%
SUI123.00.0%
BRA123.0100.0%
Australi134.0100.0%
Argentin142.0100.0%
AUS123.00.0%
What to notice: Countries with larger average teams will naturally show more shared birthdays. The country list is most useful for finding which samples are driving this sport's overall rate.

By gender

Where the dataset records it.

GenderTeam listsRealExpectedGap
Women4850.0%54.2%-4.2 points
Men12,05571.6%68.6%+3.0 points

Sample team lists

Largest teams in the dataset.

TeamSeasonPlayersRepeatsExpected chance
Leicester City - English Premier League 2022/2023 · ENG2022-2023747100.0%
Newcastle United - English Premier League 2023/2024 · ENG2023-2024737100.0%
Newcastle United - English Premier League 2022/2023 · ENG2022-202370499.9%
Chelsea - English Premier League 2022/2023 · ENG2022-202369399.9%
Chelsea - English Premier League 2023/2024 · ENG2023-202469699.9%
Leicester City - English Premier League 2017/2018 · ENG2017-201868499.9%
Liverpool - English Premier League 2022/2023 · ENG2022-202368499.9%
Arsenal - English Premier League 2023/2024 · ENG2023-202468799.9%
Leicester City - English Premier League 2016/17 · ENG2016-201766799.8%
Chelsea - English Premier League 2021/2022 · ENG2021-202266699.8%
What to notice: The sample team lists show the mechanics: once the player count gets large, the expected chance climbs quickly, and each repeat is another player landing on a date already present.