๐ŸŽ‚ Birthday Paradox ยท Sports
โ† All sports

Olympic Biathlon

Delegation

266 team lists ยท 1,976 player entries ยท avg team size 7.4

Read this sport as a comparison between raw coincidence and what team size alone predicts. Here, the real rate is +3.7 points above the birthday-paradox baseline.

Real team lists
10.5%
teams with shared birthdays
Why it matters: This is the headline rate, but it should never be read without team size.
Expected from size
6.9%
from avg team size
Why it matters: This is the fair baseline: what same-size random teams would do.
Gap from expected
+3.7 points
real โˆ’ expected
Why it matters: Positive means the sport has more birthday matches than size alone predicts.
Team lists
266
teams analysed
Why it matters: Enough team lists for a useful sport-level read.
What to notice: The best question on a sport page is not "is the real rate high?" but "is it high after accounting for team size?" That is what the gap card is answering.

Country comparison

Countries with the most team lists for Olympic Biathlon, charted by the share of teams with at least one shared birthday.

What to compare: This view is best for spotting sample-shape differences inside a sport. Among the highest-sample countries, GER has the highest observed rate, with an average team size of 10.1.

Gender split inside this sport

Real and expected rates for labelled team lists in this sport.

Why it matters: The gender gap is mostly a team-size story. Women have the larger average team size here (8.2 athletes), so their birthday-match rate naturally rises.

By country

Top 40 countries by team-list count.

CountryTeam listsAvg playersReal
NOR158.313.3%
FRA158.00.0%
USA157.320.0%
ITA147.77.1%
FIN126.78.3%
BUL116.20.0%
AUT116.10.0%
SWE117.536.4%
POL117.518.2%
CAN117.20.0%
GER1010.140.0%
SLO107.010.0%
UKR99.633.3%
BLR99.30.0%
CZE98.933.3%
SVK97.60.0%
EST87.50.0%
JPN86.512.5%
ROU85.40.0%
CHN85.512.5%
RUS710.714.3%
LAT66.30.0%
KAZ58.20.0%
SUI57.60.0%
TCH56.020.0%
HUN46.00.0%
GDR45.30.0%
FRG35.70.0%
GBR35.30.0%
KOR25.50.0%
BEL15.00.0%
AUS16.00.0%
ARG17.00.0%
EUN111.00.0%
ROC19.00.0%
LTU16.00.0%
URS15.00.0%
YUG16.00.0%
What to notice: Countries with larger average teams will naturally show more shared birthdays. The country list is most useful for finding which samples are driving this sport's overall rate.

By gender

Where the dataset records it.

GenderTeam listsRealExpectedGap
Women13413.4%8.2%+5.2 points
Men1327.6%5.5%+2.1 points

Sample team lists

Largest teams in the dataset.

TeamSeasonPlayersRepeatsExpected chance
NOR Biathlon (1992 Winter) ยท NOR1992 Winter12116.7%
USA Biathlon (1992 Winter) ยท USA1992 Winter11214.1%
UKR Biathlon (2014 Winter) ยท UKR2014 Winter11114.1%
GER Biathlon (2018 Winter) ยท GER2018 Winter11214.1%
TCH Biathlon (1992 Winter) ยท TCH1992 Winter10211.7%
RUS Biathlon (1994 Winter) ยท RUS1994 Winter10111.7%
SWE Biathlon (1992 Winter) ยท SWE1992 Winter10111.7%
SWE Biathlon (1994 Winter) ยท SWE1994 Winter10111.7%
GER Biathlon (1992 Winter) ยท GER1992 Winter10111.7%
GER Biathlon (2006 Winter) ยท GER2006 Winter10111.7%
What to notice: The sample team lists show the mechanics: once the player count gets large, the expected chance climbs quickly, and each repeat is another player landing on a date already present.